繁體 English

【彭博】马晖洪:增加中国A股敞口,应对宏观不确定性

返回上层

【字体: 2020-02-14来源:彭博(Bloomberg) 作者:佚名 访问量:97

今早,国际权威财经媒体彭博(Bloomberg)专访歌斐资产红树林CEO、歌斐首席投资官马晖洪(William Ma),就当前国内形势下的投资机会进行了探讨。


【彭博】马晖洪:增加中国A股敞口,应对宏观不确定性


以下内容根据马晖洪专访翻译: 


问:在冠状病毒肆虐期间,您对中国及中国香港市场的投资策略有何变化? 您是否增加了市场下跌的风险敞口,还是在等待进一步的抛售?

马晖洪:我们认为,目前的水平是长线投资者投资中国A股市场的良好切入点。我们使用逢低买入方法来应对短期市场波动,且于上周在港股被抛售的情况下,战术性的加大了港股的敞口。

 

【彭博】马晖洪:增加中国A股敞口,应对宏观不确定性


我们看到,全球投资者如长期投资者、中国国内对冲基金在最近几天也纷纷增加港股敞口,例如2月3号(A股于中国春节首个开放日下跌8%),当日有200亿北向资金流入,这也是沪港通深港通成立至今单日第二大北向资金流入。


目前,预测MSCI中国2020年每股收益预计将增长至10%,市盈率为12倍。从市盈率和成长率(PEG)的比率来看,目前中国A股市场的PEG倍数为1.2倍,亚洲为1.13倍,欧洲为1.65倍,美国为2.38倍,这意味着从风险/回报的角度来看,中国A股市场最具有吸引力。


在最初的抛售之后,一些中国题材股如国内消费、5G将变得极具吸引力。我们对中国A股企业,具差异化且少依赖国内消费的高端制造商和商业服务软件(SaaS)提供商保持长期看好态度 。

问:冠状病毒对经济会有何影响?您的投资观点是什么?

马晖洪:市场预计中国第一季度GDP将下降1-1.5%,这由病毒情况持续多久而定 。我们将采用杠铃策略来增加中国A股的敞口,以应对宏观不确定性:


1)自下而上:自下而上关注受病毒影响较小的公司,如电子商务、网络游戏/娱乐、拥有强大网络特许经营的教育/辅导服务提供商、AI/cloud /VR等技术服务提供商;


2)自上而下:政府刺激政策支持的行业,如中国各银行的净利润率可能会受益于进一步放松流动性的措施。

问:中国央行最新的流动性注入和可能放松对影子银行的打击,以支持经济。这将对中小企业产生多大的实际影响?再融资和债务违约意味着什么?

马晖洪:在去年因贸易战而导致经济放缓期间,甚至在病毒爆发之前,政府就制定了各种有针对性的政策来帮助中小企业。


当然,中国央行最近注入的流动性是有帮助的,而且还有一些更直接的措施正在讨论中,以帮助中小企业,比如给与企业1到3个月的免租期 。在再融资和债务违约方面,市场预计中国银行体系的不良贷款率将在8%左右。


问:对中国和香港市场的三大投资策略是什么?

马晖洪:对中国内地及香港的三大投资策略:


1)在香港上市的大型中资银行的防御(固定收益替代)策略。目前该行业的股价为每股0.6倍,为2014年以来的历史低点,股息率为5%;


2)看多商业软件服务业(SaaS),其相对更少依赖国内消费,在电子商务、网络游戏/娱乐、拥有强大网络特许经营的教育/辅导服务提供商、AI/cloud /VR等技术服务提供商等特定领域的需求可能会增加;


3)如果国内消费(食品和饮料)和5G等消费市场进一步调整,可以逢低买入。

对亚洲及股债混合投资组合建议


1)增加股票投资敞口(特别是在印度,鉴于第4季度盈利强劲复苏,以及越南,全球供应链进一步从中国转移);


2)减少传统固定收益敞口(主要担心信用利差过窄和该类别投资者的高杠杆);


3)在战略上保持对中国的增持(因为我们预计在宽松政策的支持下,今年晚些时候经济增长将会复苏)。

其它逆向投资观点:
卖中国市场看跌期权,以捕捉高隐含波动率水平和潜在的市场复苏。


附:英文

Any changes to your investment strategies for China/HK markets amid the coronavirus? - Have you added any exposures from the market dip or should you wait for further sell-off?


We believe current level is a good entry point for long term investors investing in China A-shares market. We are using buy-the-dip approach in short term volatile market, and tactically increased our long H-share exposure last week aim the sell off. We are seeing global investors long term investors as well as domestic China hedge fund increased exposure in last few days as well, for example on Feb 3 (the first day China A-share reopen and tanked 8%), there was $2.6b USD northbound flow in that day, which is the 2nd largest daily northbound flow since the stock connect program start.


Currently 2020E EPS growth for MSCI China is expected to be 10% and trading at 12x P/E. From Price Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio perspective, currently the China A-share market is trading at 1.2x, vs Asia 1.13x, Europe 1.65x and US 2.38x, implying the China A-share market is attractive from a risk/reward perspective.


After the initial selloff, some crowded China A-shares themes such as domestic consumption and 5G is start getting attractive again when sell down continue. We remain long term constructive on China A-shares high end manufacturers and business service software (SaaS) providers aim their differentiation and less dependent on domestic consumption.

 

Economic impact from the coronavirus and how that affects your investment views

 

Market is expecting China Q1 GDP to be reduced by 1-1.5%, and it is a function of how long the virus situation last. We would use a barbell approach to increase our China A-share exposure aim the macro uncertainty:

 

1) Bottom up: Focus on bottom up story and companies that are less impacted by the virus, such as e-commerce, online games/entertainments, education/tutoring service providers with strong online franchise, tech service providers such as AI/clouds/VR.


2) Top down: Sectors that are supported by government’s stimulus policy, such as the Chinese banks’ NIM could benefit from further liquidity loosening measures.


PBOC's latest liquidity injection and possible easing on shadow bank crackdown to support the economy. How much would this actually translate to SMEs? What does mean for refinancing and debt defaults?

 

The government have various targeted policy to help SMEs during the economic slowdown due to trade war last year even before the virus situation. Certainly the latest liquidity injection by PBOC is helping, and there are also more direct measures to help SMEs being discussed such as large landlords waving the rent by 1-3 months. On refinaincing and debt defaults, market is expecting NPL ratio of the Chinese banking system is around 8%.

 

Top 3 investment strategies for China & HK


For China & HK

1) Long large cap Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong as defensive (fixed income substitute) play. Currently the sector is trading at 0.6x Price/Book, historical low since 2014 and generating 5% dividend yield.


2) Long business service software (SaaS) providers aim they are less dependent on domestic consumption, and might see increase of demand in certain areas such as e-commerce, online games/entertainments, education/tutoring service providers with strong online franchise, tech service providers such as AI/clouds/VR.


3) Buy-on-dip on previous crowded themes should the correction go deeper, such as domestic consumption (food and beverages) and 5G. 


 For Asia and balanced portfolio:

1) increasing equity exposure (in particular in India, given the strong earning recovering in 4Q19 and Vietnam, further global supply chain shift from China); and

2) reducing traditional fixed income exposure (given our concern on the tight credit spread and leveraged yield hungry capital in this asset class); and

3) stay overweight China strategically (as we expect growth will recover later in the year supported by accommodative policy).

 

- Any contrarian views

Sell put options on China market to capture the high implied volatility level and potential market recovery.



免责申明

1、本网站信息均来源于市场公开资料,诺亚仅基于上述公开资料阐述诺亚观点,并不保证其准确性、完整性、实时性或正确性。本网站的信息和内容仅供参考,请谨慎使用。


2、本网站信息中署名"诺亚财富"、"诺亚财富研究部"的文章,以及图片和音视频资料,版权均属于诺亚财富。如需转载请与诺亚财富联系,并在授权的范围内注明来源和作者,保证作品的完整性。违反上述声明者,本网站将追究相关法律责任。


3、本网站转载其他媒体或机构的作品,并不意味赞同其观点或证实其内容的真实性。如其他媒体、网站或个人从本网下载使用,必须保留本网注明的"来源",并自负版权等法律责任。如本网转载涉及版权等问题,请作者在两周内来电或来函联系。


4、问题咨询及相关合作,请发邮件至:webmaster#noahwm.com,将“#”换做“@”。